Right now, our nation is gearing up for another hot election cycle. As of June 3rd, 2019, there are over 20 candidates in the Presidential race. Everyone running has convinced themselves they have a shot at winning, yet two will actually walk away from this cycle with an actual win. After next spring, the race will finally shift into the Convention season, and then go on to enter the last phase – the months before the general election. But, one issue has struck me through these early days of the campaign.
It is not the 20+ Democratic candidates who are currently running. It is not the disastrous polling predictions from various sources. And no, it is not the fact that the DNC clearly does not want another far-left Sanders like candidate winning the race. What has made me sit back in awe of this race is the GOP primary which is shaping up between former Massachusetts Governor William Weld and current President Donald Trump.
Who is Bill Weld?
Bill Weld is the only current Republican who has had the gall to present a challenge to President Donald Trump for the 2020 GOP nomination for president. Weld formerly ran as the 2016 Libertarian pick for that party’s Vice Presidential slot alongside Gary Johnson.. Weld ran as a Republican in one of the most liberal states in the union, as well as one of the most anti-Trump states today.
The former governor has claimed to be a pro-choice Republican, and has shown pretty liberal beliefs. In addition, Weld has stated that he isn’t in the race to just be there – he is supposedly in it to win it. Sadly, there is a massive issue here. One issue which both Weld supporters and the mainstream media don’t seem to understand, and one which I think will eventually come to be apparent by the time of April 2020. This issue is that Bill Weld has no chance of winning the race against Trump.
An Unwinnable Campaign
For many months, the mainstream media has reported that President Trump is virtually unliked by the entire country. According to many different liberal leaning sources, Trump is, was, or will become ‘the most disliked president in US history’. However, these media firms have failed in their attempts to stay factual in this claim – and here’s why.
Gallup is a polling site which has a “Presidential Approval Tracking Center” tool available to the public. This tool allows those curious to research and learn what approval ratings may have been like for presidents at times in history. They go back to the days of Harry Truman (nearly 70 years ago). If one looks at a comparison of Richard Nixon and Donald Trump with their disapproval ratings, one will find that Nixon left office with 66% job disapproval rating.
However, Trump only has 52% currently for disapproval. Harry Truman left office with 55% disapproval. Even the new darling of the left, George W. Bush, had higher disapproval on leaving office, holding a second place to Nixon’s 66% with 61%. So, it’s safe to say Trump is far from being the “most disliked president in US history”. It should also be mentioned that this wonderful tool does not allow us to look at numbers from presidents earlier than ~70 years ago. So, we can’t go back and look at the more historically unliked presidents like Woodrow Wilson, Herbert Hoover, or Andrew Johnson. Thus, that first claim is null and void.
Next comes the claim from both parties that “Trump is in danger of being unseated as the possible nominee for the GOP in 2020 by Weld”. However, we must return to Gallup’s tracker in order to actually examine these claims. According to Gallup’s tracker, Trump sits at 42% approval nationwide. Among Democrats party-wide, he only holds 9% support. That’s understandable and expected. However, among Republicans party-wide he sits at 90% approval thus far.
Before I continue, I need to declare an obvious caveat to using Gallup. Gallup is a liberal-leaning news and polling firm. They don’t state it outright, but they have shown subtle signs of anti-Trump and anti-conservative bias in the past, especially when it came to approval ratings. While Harris and Harvard may say Trump’s approval is at 48%, Rassmusen at 49%, and CNN has him at low 40s, Gallup has never raised his numbers past 46%, if not less than that.
When you break down Gallup’s tool on party lines, there is a clear issue for Weld and anti-Trump Republicans. In their tool, Gallup found that Trump currently holds a 91% approval among Conservative Republicans. He holds only a 70%approval among Liberal Republicans.
While this may be a great number for Weld and his supporters, we must think about several ‘hidden issues’ the governor will face in the future. First, it isn’t currently voting time. In the 2016 election, candidates on both sides of the aisle could look pretty unpopular during the debate times, but then win their races in the following voting days. This happened in other races as well.
Donald Trump was projected to lose Michigan and other states in 2016, yet he still won them. There is a chance that Weld can win states like Massachusetts, Maryland, or New Hampshire. This prediction, however, presents a real challenge. While those states are traditionally more liberal, they went for Trump in 2016 when it came to the primaries. One can make the case that Weld could win the Massachusetts primary, but other states going for him is very, very, unlikely. Even with a possible 39% of the vote, Weld still has no chance of winning enough delegates to pose any credible threat to Trump. Liberal Republicans don’t outnumber conservative Republicans in states like Iowa, the Dakotas, or other mid-country states. Despite what the media and Weld supporters may say, the man has no chance at winning the nomination.
The 2020 Presidential Race will define the strength of the Trump/populist movement. While 2016 was an amazing year for Republican and populist candidates, it made the Left angry. Socialists and neo-liberals lost big time, yet wanted revenge. They got it halfway when the House flipped blue, and when several state legislatures also went Left. But, that’s not enough. They want the Senate and the Presidency. They know in their heart of hearts that the Senate is unattainable this round, but they believe the Presidency will be easy pickings.
It is our time to unite as Republicans or to make up our minds on who we will go with. Will we go with the former Libertarian who flipped his affiliation in order to run against the man who swept his movement out, or will we go with the populist New York conservative who has brought our economy back, our trade up, and our nation as a whole back? Who will you choose? What will you as a Republican do? Take this election cycle to define your stance, and decide for yourself who will represent you.
Enjoy this article? Follow Peter on Twitter! @PeterMoonGaming
Photo of Bill Weld courtesy of Gary Johnson
A Possible Scenario
In order to really visualize what a Weld-vs-Trump scenario would look like, I took a screenshot from 270toWin’s Republican Primary page, and then Paint-edited the map they provided of every contest that will occur this year. Obviously, I am being very liberal with my estimates. Could Weld win many of the primaries I indicated were possible for him to win? Yes, and at the same time no. You see, as I wrote in the article weeks ago, the map could look very different from what we believe. Rhode Island and Connecticut, for example, were more pro-Trump than one could have expected in the 2016 general election. Then again, the voters in Arizona could give Weld their delegates. Anything is possible in today’s world, but some things are concrete. Texas, for thing, will never go Weld no matter what any rigged poll wants you to believe. Massachusetts on the other hand, will probably go for their former governor like Ohio went for Kasich in 2016.
The map isn’t perfectly edited, but that’s what happens when you want a legally blind person to create a photo for you. Now, all kidding aside, this is all my opinion. You may have a different view, and wish to express it. If you do, just let us know in the comments below, or tweet at us on Twitter. All comments are encouraged and welcome.