The 2018 midterms roll around, and the Progressive side of the Democratic Party loses small amounts of strength. The Democrats only lose 10 seats in the House, and gain 1 seat in the Senate. The GOP’s margin still remains under 200 (sitting at 190), and their side in the Senate shrinks by 1, and comes to rest at 36 seats.
The GOP, still lacking full unity and strength, fails to take back either chamber of the Congress. The division in the party is due to two factors: One is the ‘angry GOP’, a wing of the party wanting full reform on the current government at hand. They want to retake all three branches of government, roll back the constant progressive ideas, and push for a more conservative government. The second factor in the party division is the ‘Peace through quiet reform’ arm. This portion of the party base wants to have more moderate candidates who push for unity and bipartisanship in Congressional rule. Sadly, this division splits the party down a 35/40/25 split (the last portion are the ‘other’ parts of the party. In this we have evangelical-issue voters, economy-only conservative-liberals, social only conservative-liberals, and other small sects of the party).
The Democratic Party is in the middle of their own split. This split is between three dominate sectors of the party. First, there is the Progressive wing of the party. Led by Sanders and Ocasio-Cortez. This wing of the party combines both economic and social Marxism/progressivism with globalization and social justice-style ‘regressivism’, or ‘backwards progress’. This contains all of the #MeToo crowd, the ‘de-platforming’ crowd, and the ‘pro-Net Neutrality’ crowd. This sector lost its grip over the party and has now started to fight back for that control it held after 2016. The second portion of the divided base are the more classical and moderate liberals. These are people who want to work with Republicans across the aisle, and want to keep government (and the country) from devolving into a civil war. These people started to rise up after the high taxes started to become too much, and have turned into economic conservatives more than anything else. The last major divide in the party are the party elites. These include people such as Hillary Clinton, Nancy Pelosi, and other old kings/queens of the party. These people use the party as their vehicle of power; they don’t care as much for the social/economic reform it brings as they do ruling the country with it. Their control has been slipping ever since Sanders came into power. These divisions leave the party in a 45/25/25/5 split. Like last time, the extra 5 tacked on the end of that is all of the smaller sectors of the party independent from the other groups.
As the Progressives start to lose more and more control over Congress, they tighten their grip over areas of the country where they can. In state-wide levels, they enact tax hikes and fight for stricter restrictions on businesses. In the national sphere, a mild ‘Free Internet’ bill is passed by the House, and barely passes through the Senate. The bill calls for restrictions on, so-called ‘hate speech’, and the use of such language is punishable by certain legal actions such as lawsuits and jail time. The bill is challenged many times, but the Progressive-controlled courts strike down the motions that the bill is ‘unlawful’. Sanders endorses the bill and says that the bill ‘works in tandem’ with Net Neutrality. Among Progressives, this bill is a slam-dunk. However, among other political groups, the bill looks dangerous. ‘This bill does not support freedom of speech’, they argue. Immediately, sites that are public squares of discourse like Twitter, Facebook, and YouTube start kicking off members of their sites. People like Alex Jones, Steven Crowder, and Milo Yiannopolis are banned, and they relocate to less public outlets of their own. The moderates of the country oppose the bans when they hit more liberal creators like Phillip DeFranco, Styxhexenhammer, and other non-conservative creators. The bill is amended several times to accommodate things like swearing (yes: this is the reason why the Progressives who sponsored this bill are called ‘regressives’), anti-government speech pertaining to critical analysis of the government, and ‘anti-bigotry’ speech parameters. This progression into stricter and stricter legislation turns the bill into a pariah in the ‘moderate’ community on both sides of the aisle, and anyone who supports the legislation is treated as one, too. People like DeFranco don’t say they’re opposed to the bill. This breaks his support in half, and he loses a lot of listeners. Figures like Steven Crowder, Styx, and Jones all start to gain traction among moderates, as they fully oppose the bill’s restrictions. This becomes what ISIS was in 2015: if you support them, the vast political base hates you. If you in any way oppose them, you gain trust and love from the base over time. In addition to the restriction on speech, the restriction of content increases. Songs including ‘hate speech’ start to be banned. ‘Discussion of rape or the promotion of such behavior’ starts to be the killing shot for most rap songs. Vanilla Ice’s ‘Ice Ice Baby’ is removed from multiple streaming services’ playlists, as it refers to ‘violent use of a deadly weapon against the common man’. Songs describing love (of any form of expression) between two opposing genders are banned, as it ‘excludes those who do not identify as either gender, or have an opposing sexual preference’. Songs like ‘Baby It’s Cold Outside’ are removed from radio Stantons as it references interaction of a romantic nature between a man and a woman, and other songs like ‘God Rest Ye Merry Gentlemen’ are removed for ‘exclusion of women’ and ‘exclusion of those who don’t believe in a religious deity’. The ‘hate speech’ laws also travel to TV and movies. Motion pictures like Cars are banned for ‘depiction of romantic relations between two autonomous vehicles with the exclusion of homosexual relations’ and ‘depictions of violence’. In cases of the Hallmark Channel, it is out-rightly banned because it almost never ‘includes homosexual relationships’. This type of judgement comes from a new government-run organization called “Speech Safety League” or the SSL. The SSL becomes hated by most moderates as it ‘bans fun’ and ‘anything it does not agree with’. The SSL is like the SPLC, ACLU, and PETA. However, it is much more radically progressive than the former two, and rivals the last mentioned group in it’s progressiveness. The SSL quickly gains favorability points from the Progressives of America (POA) and the Progressive Party, which both endorse it’s moves and actions.
As the 2019 year approaches, so does another impending election. First, not surprising at all, Hillary Clinton announces her third bid for the Presidential spot. Sanders meets the challenge with open arms. His age does not completely affect him; while he is slower on the trail than her, he does still get around a lot. In addition to HRC, Sanders faces opposition from several other Democrats. These include Nancy Pelosi, Elizabeth Warren, Chuck Schumer, Michelle Obama, Beto O’Rourke (who is now a Senator), and Andrew Gillum (the new Governor of Florida). This field of candidates shrinks down throughout the months leading up to the 2020 year. First, both O’Rourke and Gillum drop out, due to the fact that they only can whip up support in either the Progressive or Elite wing of the party. Then comes the drop-out of both Schumer and Obama. Schumer can’t gain any support outside of the Elite wing, and thus has to drop out after December of ‘19. Obama lasts a little longer than her aforementioned foes. Obama acts like a true moderate: She acts like she’s in favor of lowering taxes (which she isn’t), lowering Carbon Emissions (A Sanders talking point), and for more racial diversity and fairness in the government (we already had 1 black president, yet have failed to elect a woman). Her fall comes when someone pins her on the spot with the question of “Do you support the SSL and it’s actions against supposed hate speech?” Obama, in order to maintain her centrist-type appeal, says something to the effect of, “Well, I believe it has done good for our nation.” This blows the support struts from her campaign, and 85% of the support from the moderates in the party abandon her cause. The only ones who continue to support her are party elites, who think she has a chance against Sanders. She drops out of the race days before the Iowa caucus. As for the three feminist elites of the party (HRC, Pelosi, and Warren), they continue to tear each other apart all throughout the season of debates, caucuses, and primaries. Hillary wants to focus on attacking Sanders for his supposed ‘anti-women’ stances, but can’t attack him because she’s always busy fighting either Pelosi or Warren. The three women tear each other apart by the time the convention comes around, and all three are forced to drop out due to the lack of delegates. Sanders, on the other hand, stays out of the DNC fray. Sanders is able to avoid any serious questions about his legacy, and gain the necessary delegates to be denominated as the next Democratic president-possibly.
On the other hand, the GOP battle heats up quite quickly. Ted Cruz, who still thinks he’s relevant in an atmosphere that doesn’t care about religious morals or grand-standing, attempts to run again. He runs on his career as a one-term Senator of Texas, being a staunch ‘religious conservative’, and him not being a New York Conservative (technically speaking: not Donald Trump). He constantly attacks the Free Internet Bill, the SSL, and Donald Trump’s anger at the political establishment in Washington. Cruz represents the old ‘Peace through Silent Progress’ side of the party; besides that, he always talks about himself being a supposed religious guy. Again, the political atmosphere has shifted from what it was in 2016: Nobody except the Evangelical-only minority cares about Cruz’s faith. Because of all of these issues, Cruz drops out after getting 10th place in the Iowa Caucus, garnering less than 1% of the total vote. Other figures rise up besides the irrelevant Cruz.
Rand Paul decides to throw his hat in the ring around late June of 2019. He starts his bid speaking about every single bill that has broken several constitutional laws that were passed under the Democrat-controlled government. While Paul is indeed running for the spot for President, he would also be part of the new ‘take back the Senate’ coalition by moderate Democrats like Joe Manchin of West Virginia. Manchin and other moderates of his party realized that the supermajority was a real problem, and that it needed to be re-balanced. What he was doing, if nationally noticed, would be catastrophic for his party (if the tilt were to go the other way). Paul’s efforts are supported by moderate non-establishment types like Rick Santorum and even some junior Senators like Marco Rubio. This coalition would remain in place until Election Day, where it would the be disbanded to stop a possible power struggle in Congress from the coalition’s members.
The fight for the party’s nomination would be laughable at best. Of course, John Kasich would attempt another run. This time, he’d drop out soon after Iowa, where he placed 6th. Huckabee and Carson would run as well; Carson would drop out after placing 4th in Iowa, and Huckabee would only get 7th. Paul and Rubio would both attempt to steal the nomination from Trump, but their efforts would be shattered. First, Rubio would end his campaign by early spring of 2020. He’d endorse Trump with full honors, and his base would shift to Trump. Paul would drop out in the early summer (mid June), and would fully endorse Trump as well. “He’s your voice to defeat the Socialist known as Bernie Sanders, and to end socialism in our country!” He’d tell his base, and they would listen. Support for Trump by convention time would be very high among the entirety of the GOP. This would galvanize the base until Election Day, and would help drive the Right to the office of the Presidency in the eventual fall.
In Congress, Ocasio-Cortez would leave the Democratic Party, and form her own party, the ‘Progressive Party’. Unlike Roosevelt’s party of Progressives in 1912, this party would be for stricter market control, further restriction on speech, and the stripping of rights from the average citizen. Her split would only take a few seats along with her (let’s say 3 Democrats), and her support would only take 10% and 5% from both the Left and the Right respectively. She and her party would start the fight to ‘end the two-party system’ in America. These threats to the Left and the Right would unite the Moderates in both parties, and they would push to stop her proposals in the House.
The main issue most moderate Democrats have with Trump is that he is inflammatory. That’s it. They like the brash and non-PC attitude, as well as the stances he takes on most issue. But, they don’t like his out-there type of speaking. This is a big issue with some moderate Republicans as well; they like Trump and his ideas, they just can’t bring themselves to support a man who had been married three times, and had cheated on at least two of those three marriages. The support factor at this point before Election Day rests at these numbers. For the Progressive vote, it’s a major Bernie camp. Of the 48% of the Democratic Party that identified with that side, 90% of these individuals support Bernie over Trump (surprisingly, 10% of that wing supports Trump). In terms of Moderates from the Democrats’ side, only 48% of them support Trump, as opposed to 52% for Sanders. Among the so called “33% of the voters in America who are moderates”, only 54% of them support Trump. Trump’s support in his own party would be massive. Among the party itself, Trump would have a large base (50%) outright. Among those who aren’t in the ‘Trump base’, they support Trump over Sanders by 38%. That’s an effective total of 88% of support in his party. These numbers would shift as the nation goes into Election Day.
Trump would effectively steamroll Sanders on November 8th, taking 319 votes to Sanders’ mere 219. Places like California would go even more blue, while moderate (or even toss-up states) like Nevada, New Mexico, and Florida would flip the other way. New Hampshire, the state in between Vermont and Maine, would go red, since they grew tired of Sanders’ unfulfilled promises and the lowered state of living. Connecticut, which was almost red in 2018 with it’s Governor’s race (Stefanowski lost by only ~2 points) would go Red by 3 points for Trump. Rhode Island, another coastal state, would go for Trump by just one point (50%-49%-1%, Independent candidate winning the 1%). Delaware, which is next to Maryland and the other super-liberal states of the East Coast, would flip to red, since it also grew extremely tired of the Sanders’ terrible economy. While Rhode Island was super-liberal in our 2018 timeline (the Democrat candidate won by 13 points), we have to contemplate the state of the economy, as well as the nation, in the alternative timeline. The economy under Sanders has been terrible, and the only thing Trump offers is a better solution. No, that’s not a partisan statement: Sanders offers more of the same that he’s been running ever since his win in 2016. Trump, however, was running on lower taxes for all, a decrease in the power of the courts (a lessened control over the Amendments), as well as a pull-out (or renegotiation) of the Paris Accords. His promises, which the media laughed at, would trigger a fire in middle America’s hearts. For four years, people had only been losing jobs, not gaining them. For the past four years, people had been losing money from the stock market, and not gaining anything. These issues do build up over time; while Trump wouldn’t be a moral-based choice (he’s been married 3 times, has had affairs more than once, swears in public, doesn’t have a filter), he’d be the perfect economic choice. So, Trump defeats Sanders, who then tries for re-election as the Senator from Vermont (which he wins by a majority of 75%-25%).
The Senate would also flip from Blue to Red, thanks to the coalition formed by the likes of Joe Manchin and Rand Paul. The Republicans would flip the Senate with their majority of 52-46 (with 2 Independents, one from Hawaii, and the other from Maine). In the House, the Republicans would also win back the House for a single term, holding a slim majority of 230-200-5 (the 5 would result in Progressive Party winners, led by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez). This would effectively turn the government itself into a mad house. All around the country, protests from Progressive-Democrats and Progressives would be organized and enacted. The ACLU would start to sue various political heads and parties, as well as other Democratic lawmakers who’d helped the ‘Restore Political Balance’ come to fruition. Various Conservative outlets would sing the praises of Trump, Paul, and others who were now in dominant power. The courts would swing the other way, too.
Here’s where we start getting into a few ‘leaps of logic’. The first Justice to go would be Kennedy in 2020; his replacement battle would be stalled by the Republican minority because of ‘Election Year’ (like they did in 2015-2016). He would be replaced by a Kavanaugh-like judge, or a ‘center-right’ fellow. Next would go Thomas in 2021; his replacement would be a Gorsuch-like judge, who would be a tried and true Conservative all the way through. Next, we’d have the death (yes, I said “Death”) of Ruth Ginsburg. I don’t say this out of spite for RBG; at some point, we have to admit that she is just too old to keep fighting the Right from ‘taking over the Courts’.
Due to pressure from the moderate Left, Trump would indeed nominate a replacement who would be a center-left judge. No, they would not be an RBG type, but they would be on the political Left as we know it. Breyer would be next to retire in 2022; at this point in time, he’d be 82, and ready for retirement. His replacement battle would be hard fought, but a Kavanaugh-like judge would be appointed to take his place. My reasoning is because I don’t take Breyer to want a Progressive or a super-Conservative. (As much as I know), Breyer is a moderate Liberal judge; he’s not too far to the Left, but he is on the Left. His replacement nominee would tip the court back to the Right, as the number of Right-over-Left justices would then number 5-4. Kagan, Sotomayor, RBG’s replacement, and Garland would remain as the Liberal representatives, and Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, Breyer’s replacement, Roberts, and Alito would represent the Right. This power balance would negatively affect all of the work the previous administration had achieved; ‘Free Internet’ would be struck down as being “unconstitutional”, many restrictions on the 2nd Amendment would be rolled back, and healthcare legislation would be scaled back as well. People would start to make money again, thanks to the tax cuts made by the Trump administration. The market would begin to steadily rise again, and companies would start to hire again. Our nation would slowly come back from the near-depression the Sanders’ economy almost put it through. This fight would go through to the eventual 2024 re-election bid, and on from there.
If you have read my other articles in this series, you would already know that (spoiler alert) Trump won in that scenario, too. I believe this deserves an explanation. However, the full article in which I explain it all will have to wait for a different time, as this one is going on for nearly 3,000 words. That will go over my general reasoning for now giving the Republicans two comeback wins in all three branches of government. If you enjoy this series, and want to support the website, please let us know by commenting, liking, and promoting the material. If you even want to become a writer for the University Conservative, be sure to follow the ‘Join the UC’ link below, and write your own article there. I look forward to hearing your feedback.
270towin.com was (again) the site I used to compile the possible outcomes of each election. If you have any questions about each state flipping a certain way, please let me know through the comments section of this blog, or on Twitter.
TRUMP WIN (2020, Trump v. Bernie): https://www.270towin.com/maps/