Last night, November the 6th, was one of the most hectic midterms I’ve ever seen. Granted, this is my first midterms where I actually cared what the outcome was. However, I feel I can still claim my previous statement as my subjective and truthful opinion. The following analysis will be completely my own opinion; I hope you enjoy my take.
I think we all know what has happened: Currently, we can safely say that, whatever happens with the last two unannounced returns (Arizona and Mississippi’s Special), Republicans will maintain control of the Senate. Currently, there are 29 races left to the unannounced. Republicans undoubtedly have lost the House; no matter the way you look at it, even if they swept all 29 (which would never happen), they’d only gain a small majority in the House. Let’s take a gander and say at least half (~14 R’s, 15 Dem seats) go to the GOP. We still lose. Give it up, Conservatives: The numbers are just not in our favor.
In gubernatorial races, we lost quite a few states. Kansas, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Maine, and Illinois were the majority of these losses. We narrowly won Florida, but on the other hand, safely kept Texas in our party’s grasp. California, Oregon, Minnesota, New York, and Colorado held blue; Georgia still hasn’t come in because Abrams doesn’t want to conclude defeat while less than 100% of the vote is in. (I have the same sentiments, but with other races; I’ll get into that later)
HUGE WINS/BIG DEFEATS
During the night, several Democrats lost their races in widely publicized races. O’Rourke lost in Texas (he was the media’s darling), Gillum lost in Florida (he was the next Obama in some Conservative’s eyes; he was popular among the MSM, and was groomed as a potential 2020 runner if he’d won; of course, this is all speculation and inference), and Donnely was unseated in Indiana. On our side of the aisle: James and Shwette both lost in Michigan, as well as Bishop in his re-election race for Michigan’s House Rep.; Cox lost to Newson in California’s Gubernatorial race, while several Republicans look to not be entering the House who were running along in that state; in many, many Trump-won, solid-red districts, Democrats unseated their Republican rivals. Some of these, such as the tip of the Panhandle in Florida, were not surprising; a lot of the races in that state were very tight. However, in other states such as Oklahoma, our candidates were unseated. Oklahoma, which, in 2016, was handily won by Trump, elected a Democratic House member!
Some key victories were: DeSantis in Florida’s Governor race, Scott in Florida’s Senate race, and, of course, Keith Ellison and his win in Minnesota. While the last one was more predictable, both Florida races should be seen by all as ‘upsets’. Scott, who was 1) Made unpopular by many state youth voters due to the MarchForOurLives movement, and 2) Was running against an incumbent, which is sort of difficult.
ONE MAJOR ISSUE I HAD WITH THE COVERAGE
Fox News: What the heck is wrong with your reporting?
Early in the night, at around 10:00 Eastern to 12:00 eastern, Fox News announced that they “projected” the Democrats would take the House. Now, while predicting something isn’t an issue (I could just as easily predict the network lost around 15% of it’s core base with that move), predicting such a huge loss so early in a race is not very ethical, or very smart. At the time, Bill Mitchell on Twitter pointed out two different things: First, Fox News didn’t call the Florida races until more than 95% of the votes were in for both races, despite both Republicans having a good lead over their opponents; all the while, they called races left and right for Democrats all throughout the night, even when less than 50% of the vote was in. There is a method to all of this, but, it does make you think: In a race such as Florida, where the margins stopped shifting after the 85 percent line, why wouldn’t you determine the race at that point? John James was projected to lose his race when only around 45%-49% of the vote was in; he had only been losing by 5 or 6 points at the time. With over half the votes remaining, why would you project a loss that soon? Second, at the time of this projection, Mitchell also pointed out the fact that the Democrats had, at that point in time, only picked up 2 Republican seats, and that only around 1/3 of the actual House finals were in. So, it brings up the question: Why in the world would the network call the national race-final so soon? Especially when people in West Coast states were still voting? Do not get me wrong: I have a lot of other issues with this midterm; however, I can only flesh this one gripe out this far.
MY TIPS FOR THE FUTURE
USE DIFFERENT POLLING DATA/SOURCES
If you get your data from MSM sources, please stop. Look, I love the “major Trump disapproval ratings” polls CNN puts out every hour (it seems like), but as Styxhexenhammer pointed out 2 days before the race finals: Some of these pollsters are predicting races based on data that is, in some cases, up to a month old. According to Styx, a person wanting a fairly accurate reading of the race should not go off of old data like these. If you want to try and pull a Nate Silver, use several different polling sources. RealClearPolitics is a great website for just this; they take polling data from many different sources, usually within days or weeks of each other (updating the poll numbers), and aggregate them. Many races, such as Gillum v. DeSantis, were more updated. However, some races, like one of the Michigan House Reps., had no recent polls! How can you seriously take a “Dem win” when there are races that no one has cared enough about to pre-poll on?
Another thing: On Election Night, avoid just using the TV or YouTube as your main source. I’ll mention them again: RCP (Real Clear Politics) had, all throughout the night, the best numbers on each race. While Fox and other MSM networks held off on predicting the Florida races when 85% of the data was already in, it was clear that RCP had a clear winner. The trends for the Scott race, in specific, was so on-the-line maintained that, by the time it hit 95%, we all knew DeSantis had won….except apparently Fox News. I suggest at least three other sources of information for you to check out Election Night in 2020: Anthony Brian Logan (if he does a stream that night; this time he did), Styxhexenhammer (who always does a Election Night stream), and Bloomberg.com, as well as RCP. You do your own research; I pulled a Fox News at least 5 times during the Election Night, and, I hate to brag, but, I was right all five times. Listen, I’ll give you some good advice (which I learned as the night went on): some races are, in fact, not “too close to call”. When it’s 48.5 to 50.5, and 90% of the vote is in (I’m using Georgia as an example), I think we can all agree that it’s clear who will win. Yet, Fox never called Kemp the winner, for whatever strange reason. At some point, it stops being “too close to call”, and it just changes to “just give it up; they won.”
Another tip: In your classes the following day, if a teacher starts spewing some false rhetoric like, “I think we can all agree racism still exists in the south”, (referring, no doubt, to the loss of two black candidates in Southern states to white men, despite the fact that the men in the races were not running on the fact that the color of their skin made them viable choices for their seats), don’t be afraid to speak up. If the teacher is talking about something that is obviously a lie, you have the truth on your side. Oh, and if they mention the “Trump will shortly be impeached” line, inform them that to impeach a President, one needs both a majority in the House and the Senate. Then inform them that, in fact, for the next 2 years, Republicans have the majority in the second.
I hope all of you had a wonderful election day as I had; please remember that, even if we did lose the House, we still maintain a majority in the Senate, as well as own the Presidency, and have a majority in the Governorships. Also, for your friends or family who may be Democrats: Don’t start fights over who you voted for. Trust me, the last thing I need at a family reunion is a tag-team of my liberal or Democrat relatives bashing me for what I think.